Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.7%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.3%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
25.6%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-29%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
37
3º
12º
6º
37
5º
14º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
55 | 55 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
51 | 51 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
50 | 50 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
39 | 39 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 38 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
37 | 37 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
37 | 37 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
32 | 32 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
25 | 25 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 21 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
17 | 17 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
USA
4 - 1
BEN
51%
25%
25%
|
46 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
BEN
2 - 0
MAR
52%
26%
23%
|
44 | 42 | 2 | +2 |
| 17 Dec. 2023 |
BEN
2 - 0
PEN
70%
19%
11%
|
44 | 31 | 13 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
SER
1 - 2
BEN
38%
28%
34%
|
43 | 42 | 1 | +1 |
| 03 Dec. 2023 |
GOU
0 - 0
BEN
24%
26%
50%
|
44 | 32 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
MOR
3 - 2
GOU
63%
21%
17%
|
39 | 32 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
VIT
1 - 1
MOR
21%
22%
58%
|
39 | 32 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
MOR
1 - 2
LUS
44%
25%
31%
|
39 | 38 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2023 |
RAB
1 - 1
MOR
36%
26%
38%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
COI
1 - 1
MOR
68%
20%
12%
|
39 | 66 | 27 | +1 |