Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.3%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
23.1%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-26%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
7º
5º
35
1º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 1
BEN
50%
25%
26%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
BEN
1 - 1
SER
39%
27%
34%
|
38 | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
ALC
0 - 2
BEN
17%
22%
62%
|
37 | 22 | 15 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
BEN
3 - 1
LOU
45%
27%
28%
|
36 | 37 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
PER
3 - 1
BEN
41%
26%
33%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
MOR
1 - 0
UDR
44%
23%
33%
|
33 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
MAR
3 - 1
MOR
40%
25%
35%
|
34 | 35 | 1 | -1 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
MOR
2 - 0
1DE
39%
25%
37%
|
33 | 34 | 1 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 2
MOR
35%
22%
43%
|
32 | 26 | 6 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 0
MOR
64%
18%
18%
|
32 | 36 | 4 | 0 |