Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.3%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
23.1%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-27%
-19%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
7º
5º
35
1º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 1
BEN
50%
25%
26%
|
40 | 37 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
BEN
1 - 1
SER
39%
27%
34%
|
40 | 44 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
ALC
0 - 2
BEN
17%
22%
62%
|
39 | 24 | 15 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
BEN
3 - 1
LOU
45%
27%
28%
|
37 | 39 | 2 | +2 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
PER
3 - 1
BEN
41%
26%
33%
|
39 | 36 | 3 | -2 |
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
MOR
1 - 0
UDR
44%
23%
33%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
MAR
3 - 1
MOR
40%
25%
35%
|
36 | 36 | 0 | -1 |
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
MOR
2 - 0
1DE
39%
25%
37%
|
34 | 35 | 1 | +2 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 2
MOR
35%
22%
43%
|
33 | 27 | 6 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 0
MOR
64%
18%
18%
|
34 | 38 | 4 | -1 |