Benfica Castelo Branco vs Loures analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.8%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.3%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.7%
27.3%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.3%
27.9%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-25%
+11%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
7º
5º
25
11º
14º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 18% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 82% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
PER
3 - 1
BEN
41%
26%
33%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
BEN
2 - 1
COR
62%
21%
17%
|
37 | 30 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
BEN
0 - 1
FAR
7%
17%
76%
|
37 | 64 | 27 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
SIN
0 - 0
BEN
64%
22%
14%
|
36 | 43 | 7 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
BEN
1 - 0
USA
51%
23%
26%
|
36 | 33 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Loures
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
LOU
1 - 1
UDR
53%
22%
26%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
MAR
0 - 0
LOU
35%
26%
39%
|
37 | 32 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
LOU
0 - 3
BMA
39%
26%
36%
|
39 | 39 | 0 | -2 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
LOU
1 - 1
1DE
65%
20%
15%
|
39 | 29 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
MOR
4 - 0
LOU
17%
24%
59%
|
42 | 24 | 18 | -3 |