Benfica Castelo Branco vs Alcains analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.3%
Win probability
2.46
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.6%
4-0
7.5%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.8%
3-0
12.2%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.9%
2-0
14.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.8%
1-0
12%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
14.2%
6.4%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-37%
+75%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
7º
5º
11
9º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
LOU
1 - 3
BEN
34%
26%
39%
|
39 | 33 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
0 - 1
PER
52%
26%
23%
|
39 | 37 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
COR
2 - 0
BEN
37%
28%
36%
|
41 | 35 | 6 | -2 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 1
SIN
38%
28%
35%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
USA
1 - 1
BEN
47%
26%
27%
|
41 | 39 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Alcains
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
3 - 0
ALC
74%
17%
9%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 2
1DE
11%
19%
70%
|
21 | 38 | 17 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
MOR
0 - 4
ALC
76%
16%
8%
|
19 | 36 | 17 | +2 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 1
UDA
12%
18%
70%
|
20 | 35 | 15 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 3
SER
11%
18%
71%
|
21 | 43 | 22 | -1 |