Benfica Castelo Branco vs Alcains analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.3%
Win probability
2.46
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.6%
4-0
7.5%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.8%
3-0
12.2%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
16.9%
2-0
14.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.8%
1-0
12%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
2.3%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
14.2%
6.4%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
5%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-27%
+78%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
7º
5º
11
9º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
LOU
1 - 3
BEN
34%
26%
39%
|
39 | 34 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
0 - 1
PER
52%
26%
23%
|
40 | 37 | 3 | -1 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
COR
2 - 0
BEN
37%
28%
36%
|
42 | 35 | 7 | -2 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 1
SIN
38%
28%
35%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | +1 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
USA
1 - 1
BEN
47%
26%
27%
|
41 | 39 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Alcains
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
3 - 0
ALC
74%
17%
9%
|
21 | 37 | 16 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 2
1DE
11%
19%
70%
|
21 | 39 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
MOR
0 - 4
ALC
76%
16%
8%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | +1 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 1
UDA
12%
18%
70%
|
20 | 35 | 15 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 3
SER
11%
18%
71%
|
21 | 43 | 22 | -1 |