Arronches e Benfica vs UD da Serra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27.9%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
3.2%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
8%
1-0
4.4%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
15.3%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
9%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.4%
50.7%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
15.2%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
3.2%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
8.5%
0-4
2.1%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
3.8%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
11º
14º
12º
27
2º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 80% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 20% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arronches e Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 2
VIA
42%
23%
35%
|
28 | 30 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
USA
3 - 0
SAB
53%
21%
26%
|
30 | 33 | 3 | -2 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 3
SER
34%
23%
43%
|
32 | 40 | 8 | -2 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
SAB
2 - 0
MOS
69%
17%
14%
|
32 | 18 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2021 |
OLI
3 - 0
SAB
77%
14%
9%
|
32 | 53 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
UD da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
0 - 4
OLI
17%
18%
65%
|
37 | 50 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
SER
1 - 0
UDA
41%
27%
32%
|
38 | 41 | 3 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
UDA
5 - 4
ALC
84%
11%
5%
|
38 | 22 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
UDA
5 - 1
ACD
80%
13%
7%
|
38 | 7 | 31 | 0 |