Arronches e Benfica vs Alcains analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.4%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.5%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.9%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.3%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
8%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
17.4%
13.2%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
3.4%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
+17%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
10
2º
10º
10º
1
13º
14º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
10 | 54 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
5 | 52 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 44 |
3º
|
20% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 43 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 38 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 38 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
3º
|
8 | 38 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 36 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
7º
|
4 | 33 |
9º
|
8% | |
|
|
2º
|
10 | 33 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 31 |
11º
|
20.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 30 |
12º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 17 |
13º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
1 | 14 |
14º
|
56.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
59% | 1.5% |
|
Relegation
|
39.5% | 98.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arronches e Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
GAV
0 - 3
SAB
20%
19%
61%
|
31 | 18 | 13 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
MAR
2 - 3
SAB
18%
19%
63%
|
30 | 15 | 15 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SAB
0 - 0
MOR
21%
20%
59%
|
30 | 42 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
POM
1 - 2
SAB
59%
19%
22%
|
28 | 31 | 3 | +2 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
SAB
3 - 1
BEN
18%
21%
61%
|
24 | 40 | 16 | +4 |
Matches
Alcains
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
ALC
0 - 2
OEL
14%
21%
65%
|
20 | 63 | 43 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
FAT
0 - 0
ALC
84%
11%
5%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
ALC
0 - 1
PER
18%
23%
59%
|
20 | 34 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
SER
1 - 3
ALC
76%
17%
7%
|
19 | 42 | 23 | +1 |
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
ALC
2 - 0
SAB
17%
19%
64%
|
17 | 26 | 9 | +2 |