Spital vs Millbrook analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
11.9%
1-0
5.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.9%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
9%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
22.1%
38%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
18.4%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
11.3%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
5.4%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points