Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.6%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
23.6%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.6%
19.8%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
3º
7º
6º
14
7º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 76 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
3º
|
40 | 60 |
2º
|
41% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 58 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 58 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 50 |
5º
|
46.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
32 | 46 |
6º
|
30.5% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 44 |
7º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 42 |
8º
|
19.5% | |
|
10º
|
21 | 39 |
9º
|
25.5% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 38 |
10º
|
26.5% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 32 |
11º
|
35% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 31 |
12º
|
31.5% | |
|
13º
|
14 | 28 |
13º
|
33% | |
|
|
14º
|
14 | 23 |
14º
|
39% | |
|
15º
|
13 | 22 |
15º
|
37% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 17 |
16º
|
76% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
2% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
88% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spartak Varna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2024 |
SEP
0 - 1
SVA
36%
26%
38%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
SVA
0 - 2
CVA
35%
29%
36%
|
69 | 78 | 9 | -1 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
BVR
1 - 1
SVA
27%
26%
47%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SVA
0 - 0
LSO
32%
27%
41%
|
68 | 77 | 9 | +1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
BOT
0 - 1
SVA
53%
25%
22%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Lokomotiv Sofia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2024 |
LSO
0 - 0
HEB
50%
25%
25%
|
63 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2024 |
LUD
2 - 0
LSO
80%
13%
7%
|
63 | 78 | 15 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2024 |
LSO
0 - 3
CSK
33%
29%
38%
|
64 | 71 | 7 | -1 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
LPL
1 - 1
LSO
57%
25%
18%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
LSO
0 - 1
BVR
52%
25%
23%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | 0 |