SPAL vs Modena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.5%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.8%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
15%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
16.8%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.1%
+1
27.1%
22%
Draw
0-0
9.5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
22%
11.5%
Win probability
0.58
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SPAL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1969 |
BRE
3 - 0
SPA
58%
25%
17%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1968 |
SPA
0 - 1
COM
63%
23%
14%
|
67 | 60 | 7 | -1 |
| 22 Dec. 1968 |
REG
1 - 1
SPA
45%
30%
25%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 1968 |
GEN
0 - 1
SPA
47%
29%
24%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1968 |
SPA
1 - 1
BAR
53%
26%
21%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Modena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1969 |
MOD
0 - 0
REG
45%
27%
28%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1968 |
REG
1 - 0
MOD
58%
26%
16%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | -1 |
| 22 Dec. 1968 |
MOD
1 - 0
MAN
49%
28%
23%
|
57 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 1968 |
PRG
0 - 0
MOD
60%
24%
17%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 1968 |
MOD
1 - 2
BRE
40%
29%
31%
|
57 | 70 | 13 | 0 |