SPAL vs ACR Messina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.4%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
3.2%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.1%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
3.3%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.8%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.7%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.2%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20%
14.5%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14.4%
11.1%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
7.3%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
2.7%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-24%
-15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SPAL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 1951 |
SPA
2 - 1
SAL
75%
14%
10%
|
70 | 60 | 10 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1951 |
SPE
0 - 3
SPA
40%
22%
38%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1950 |
SPA
2 - 1
UNI
62%
19%
19%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Dec. 1950 |
ANC
2 - 3
SPA
34%
23%
43%
|
69 | 51 | 18 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1950 |
SPA
3 - 0
LIV
63%
18%
19%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
ACR Messina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 1951 |
TRE
0 - 1
MES
66%
18%
16%
|
57 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1951 |
MES
2 - 1
REG
51%
22%
28%
|
56 | 64 | 8 | +1 |
| 31 Dec. 1950 |
MES
2 - 0
USC
59%
20%
21%
|
55 | 59 | 4 | +1 |
| 24 Dec. 1950 |
VER
3 - 0
MES
71%
16%
13%
|
56 | 66 | 10 | -1 |
| 17 Dec. 1950 |
MES
1 - 1
CAT
58%
20%
22%
|
56 | 60 | 4 | 0 |