SPAL vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.3%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.4%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.6%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
25.1%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.3%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SPAL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
PAD
1 - 0
SPA
65%
21%
14%
|
52 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2003 |
SPA
0 - 2
ARZ
48%
26%
26%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
RIM
3 - 1
SPA
53%
26%
21%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
SPA
0 - 1
REG
48%
25%
27%
|
55 | 54 | 1 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
ASL
2 - 0
SPA
48%
28%
23%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2003 |
VAR
1 - 1
CTT
38%
29%
34%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2003 |
ACL
2 - 0
VAR
59%
23%
18%
|
54 | 58 | 4 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2003 |
ASL
0 - 1
VAR
49%
28%
23%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
VAR
0 - 0
PAD
34%
28%
39%
|
53 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
VAR
3 - 2
NOV
23%
25%
52%
|
52 | 63 | 11 | +1 |