SPAL vs Varese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.1%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.6%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.2%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
13.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
20.4%
12.4%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.1%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SPAL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1981 |
TAR
0 - 0
SPA
43%
32%
25%
|
58 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1981 |
GEN
2 - 1
SPA
59%
26%
15%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | -1 |
| 12 Apr. 1981 |
SPA
1 - 2
ACM
31%
28%
41%
|
59 | 79 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1981 |
LAZ
2 - 0
SPA
65%
23%
12%
|
60 | 68 | 8 | -1 |
| 29 Mar. 1981 |
SPA
1 - 1
CES
56%
26%
18%
|
60 | 62 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1981 |
BAR
2 - 1
VAR
58%
26%
16%
|
52 | 55 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1981 |
VAR
1 - 0
PAL
47%
30%
23%
|
51 | 58 | 7 | +1 |
| 12 Apr. 1981 |
VAR
0 - 1
GEN
44%
30%
27%
|
51 | 60 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1981 |
CAT
2 - 0
VAR
56%
27%
17%
|
53 | 54 | 1 | -2 |
| 29 Mar. 1981 |
VAR
1 - 0
PES
48%
29%
23%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | +2 |