Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.2%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.3%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
23%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23%
20.8%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 1999 |
MUD
3 - 3
SOU
77%
15%
7%
|
75 | 92 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 1999 |
SOU
4 - 3
MAC
67%
19%
13%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1999 |
SOU
0 - 1
ARS
31%
28%
41%
|
75 | 89 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1999 |
MAC
0 - 0
SOU
35%
26%
39%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1999 |
MID
3 - 2
SOU
56%
23%
21%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep. 1999 |
DER
0 - 1
BRA
67%
20%
13%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1999 |
DER
3 - 1
SWA
79%
14%
7%
|
77 | 56 | 21 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1999 |
DER
0 - 5
SUN
44%
25%
30%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 14 Sep. 1999 |
SWA
0 - 0
DER
17%
25%
58%
|
78 | 57 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1999 |
WIM
2 - 2
DER
43%
27%
30%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |