Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66%
Win probability
1.95
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
13%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.7%
13.3%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 1990 |
SOU
2 - 3
CHL
61%
21%
18%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1990 |
SOU
4 - 1
NOR
56%
24%
20%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Feb. 1990 |
LUT
1 - 1
SOU
49%
25%
27%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 1990 |
LIV
3 - 0
SOU
76%
16%
8%
|
81 | 91 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 1990 |
CRY
3 - 1
SOU
34%
27%
39%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 1990 |
SHW
1 - 0
DER
53%
26%
21%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1990 |
DER
2 - 1
TOT
42%
28%
30%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 1990 |
DER
2 - 0
QPR
46%
28%
26%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | +1 |
| 31 Jan. 1990 |
WHU
2 - 1
DER
48%
25%
27%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 24 Jan. 1990 |
DER
0 - 0
WHU
64%
20%
16%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |