Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.2%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.9%
2-0
13.3%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.5%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.2%
10.6%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov. 1987 |
ARS
0 - 1
SOU
62%
22%
15%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 1987 |
SOU
3 - 0
OXF
62%
22%
16%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 1987 |
WIM
2 - 0
SOU
51%
25%
24%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1987 |
CHA
1 - 1
SOU
34%
26%
40%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | -1 |
| 24 Oct. 1987 |
SOU
3 - 0
CHL
54%
24%
22%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 1987 |
DER
2 - 0
CHL
39%
27%
35%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 1987 |
NEW
0 - 0
DER
74%
16%
10%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1987 |
DER
2 - 0
COV
40%
28%
32%
|
73 | 82 | 9 | +1 |
| 24 Oct. 1987 |
ARS
2 - 1
DER
72%
19%
9%
|
73 | 87 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1987 |
CHA
0 - 1
DER
60%
23%
18%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |