Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.5%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.8%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
17.2%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 1979 |
BHA
0 - 0
SOU
48%
26%
26%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1979 |
SOU
5 - 2
TOT
55%
23%
23%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1979 |
MAC
0 - 1
SOU
66%
20%
14%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1979 |
SOU
3 - 2
LIV
25%
30%
45%
|
82 | 93 | 11 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 1979 |
BOL
2 - 1
SOU
53%
24%
23%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 1979 |
DER
1 - 0
MID
48%
26%
26%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1979 |
MUD
1 - 0
DER
68%
19%
13%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1979 |
DER
3 - 2
ARS
38%
27%
35%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1979 |
CRY
4 - 0
DER
41%
28%
32%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1979 |
DER
0 - 1
EVE
43%
27%
30%
|
82 | 87 | 5 | -1 |