Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.9%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.5%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
28.7%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1972 |
COV
1 - 0
SOU
50%
25%
25%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1971 |
SOU
1 - 0
CRY
70%
19%
12%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 1971 |
HUR
0 - 2
SOU
36%
27%
36%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 1971 |
SOU
3 - 3
WHU
53%
24%
22%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 1971 |
TOT
1 - 0
SOU
67%
20%
13%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1972 |
DER
1 - 0
CHL
49%
25%
27%
|
86 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1971 |
LEE
3 - 0
DER
66%
21%
13%
|
86 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 1971 |
DER
2 - 0
EVE
60%
22%
18%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 1971 |
LIV
3 - 2
DER
53%
26%
20%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 1971 |
DER
3 - 1
MAC
57%
24%
20%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |