FA Cup 1/16
Global 4-3
Southampton vs Crewe Alexandra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.7%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.6%
4-0
5.6%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.1%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.8%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
10%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
16.7%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.7%
10.6%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.6%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Feb. 1996 |
SOU
2 - 2
EVE
43%
27%
30%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 1996 |
SOU
1 - 1
MAC
55%
24%
21%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 1996 |
SOU
2 - 1
MID
60%
23%
17%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 1996 |
NTT
1 - 0
SOU
56%
24%
20%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1996 |
SOU
3 - 0
OPA
76%
16%
9%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Crewe Alexandra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan. 1996 |
BRA
2 - 1
CRE
35%
26%
39%
|
62 | 51 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 1996 |
CRE
2 - 0
WYC
67%
19%
14%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | +1 |
| 13 Jan. 1996 |
BRI
3 - 2
CRE
29%
27%
44%
|
62 | 52 | 10 | -1 |
| 06 Jan. 1996 |
CRE
4 - 3
WBA
75%
15%
10%
|
62 | 54 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1995 |
CRE
0 - 0
WRE
68%
19%
14%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | 0 |