South Melbourne vs Wellington Phoenix analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12.5%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.8%
1-0
4%
2-1
3.6%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.8%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.6%
68.9%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.9%
0-2
11.9%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.8%
0-3
8.7%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.4%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6.8%
0-5
2.1%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.8%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
South Melbourne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
SOU
4 - 0
POR
73%
17%
10%
|
51 | 38 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
SOU
1 - 2
DAC
82%
13%
5%
|
51 | 28 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
GRE
0 - 1
SOU
17%
22%
60%
|
51 | 36 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2024 |
SOU
1 - 0
DAN
81%
13%
6%
|
50 | 27 | 23 | +1 |
| 30 Jun. 2024 |
SOU
1 - 2
OAK
50%
24%
26%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Wellington Phoenix
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 2
MEL
46%
25%
29%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
MEL
0 - 0
WPH
44%
26%
30%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2024 |
WPH
3 - 0
MFC
51%
24%
25%
|
71 | 68 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Apr. 2024 |
NEW
1 - 1
WPH
32%
26%
43%
|
71 | 63 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2024 |
WPH
1 - 0
MEL
43%
25%
32%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | +1 |