Sousa vs Lucena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.9%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
10.4%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
14.9%
2-0
13.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.1%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
17%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
8%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17%
9.2%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sousa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2015 |
SOU
1 - 0
AUT
51%
25%
24%
|
46 | 41 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2014 |
ATL
1 - 3
SOU
33%
26%
41%
|
46 | 39 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 2014 |
AUT
1 - 1
SOU
42%
25%
33%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2014 |
SOU
3 - 0
SPO
74%
17%
9%
|
46 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2014 |
CSP
0 - 0
SOU
50%
24%
27%
|
46 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Lucena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2015 |
LUC
3 - 2
ATL
15%
20%
66%
|
12 | 38 | 26 | 0 |