Conmebol Sudamericana Playoffs 1/16
Global 0-1
Sol de América vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.9%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.4%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.5%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.7%
33.4%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
18.5%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.6%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sol de América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jun. 2018 |
LQE
0 - 1
AME
34%
27%
40%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2018 |
AME
4 - 3
GEN
50%
25%
26%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2018 |
IND
3 - 1
AME
34%
26%
40%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2018 |
AME
0 - 3
OLI
43%
25%
32%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | -1 |
| 21 May. 2018 |
DEP
1 - 1
AME
38%
26%
37%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun. 2018 |
NAC
3 - 2
TOR
72%
19%
9%
|
82 | 65 | 17 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2018 |
DAN
0 - 2
NAC
27%
26%
47%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2018 |
JUN
0 - 2
NAC
13%
23%
65%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2018 |
NAC
5 - 0
RAC
70%
20%
11%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2018 |
MWA
1 - 4
NAC
26%
26%
48%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |