Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.5%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
3.8%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
8.6%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
15.2%
20.4%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
7%
3-3
2.9%
4-4
0.7%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
20.4%
50.1%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
5.2%
3-4
1.6%
4-5
0.3%
5-6
0%
-1
20%
0-2
5%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
2.9%
3-5
0.7%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
14.9%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
1.3%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
8.7%
0-4
2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
4.1%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
2-9
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-41%
-18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
12
11º
14º
13º
16
9º
14º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
50 | 63 |
1º
|
53.5% | |
|
1º
|
50 | 61 |
2º
|
43.5% | |
|
3º
|
46 | 57 |
3º
|
73% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 47 |
4º
|
84% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 42 |
5º
|
52% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 39 |
6º
|
49% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 36 |
7º
|
65.5% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 30 |
8º
|
51.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
16 | 27 |
9º
|
29.5% | |
|
9º
|
22 | 27 |
10º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 23 |
11º
|
18.5% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 23 |
12º
|
21% | |
|
|
13º
|
12 | 19 |
13º
|
33.5% | |
|
14º
|
11 | 18 |
14º
|
49.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
7.5% | 88.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
15.5% | 10% |
|
Relegation
|
77% | 1.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Smiltene
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
VAL
2 - 0
SMI
71%
16%
13%
|
31 | 52 | 21 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SMI
0 - 2
KFV
60%
18%
22%
|
32 | 33 | 1 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
TUK
1 - 2
SMI
68%
16%
17%
|
30 | 41 | 11 | +2 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SMI
0 - 3
RIG
25%
22%
54%
|
31 | 60 | 29 | -1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
FSL
2 - 2
SMI
37%
21%
43%
|
30 | 30 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Progress / AFA Olaine
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
PRA
5 - 0
RFA
72%
15%
13%
|
40 | 29 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
PRA
0 - 0
VAL
27%
22%
51%
|
39 | 52 | 13 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
LIE
1 - 0
PRA
82%
14%
5%
|
39 | 70 | 31 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
RIG
3 - 1
PRA
71%
17%
13%
|
40 | 59 | 19 | -1 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
PRA
3 - 1
FSL
72%
15%
13%
|
39 | 31 | 8 | +1 |