Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27.5%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.1%
2-0
4.8%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.1%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
17.7%
28.2%
Draw
0-0
10.5%
1-1
13%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
28.2%
44.3%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
13.6%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
8.8%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
13.1%
0-3
3.8%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-26%
-15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
12
10º
14º
13º
21
6º
13º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
42 | 59 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
3º
|
31 | 45 |
2º
|
37.5% | |
|
4º
|
30 | 44 |
3º
|
28% | |
|
2º
|
32 | 43 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
5º
|
28 | 42 |
5º
|
19% | |
|
|
7º
|
21 | 35 |
6º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
22 | 34 |
7º
|
18.5% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 33 |
8º
|
21% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 32 |
9º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
20 | 31 |
10º
|
17.5% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 28 |
11º
|
20.5% | |
|
11º
|
16 | 24 |
12º
|
37.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
12 | 23 |
13º
|
40.5% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 18 |
14º
|
67% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
4.5% | 75.5% |
|
Relegation
|
95.5% | 24.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sertanense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
ALC
2 - 0
SER
27%
24%
49%
|
40 | 32 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
SER
1 - 1
MAR
60%
21%
19%
|
40 | 25 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
MOR
1 - 1
SER
48%
26%
27%
|
40 | 42 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
SER
0 - 0
SAB
46%
23%
31%
|
40 | 35 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
OEL
1 - 0
SER
67%
20%
13%
|
40 | 66 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
BEN
6 - 1
COI
21%
26%
53%
|
42 | 68 | 26 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
MAR
0 - 0
BEN
61%
22%
17%
|
42 | 48 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
BEN
0 - 1
PEN
50%
26%
25%
|
42 | 40 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
POM
0 - 1
BEN
39%
26%
36%
|
41 | 35 | 6 | +1 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
ALC
0 - 0
BEN
21%
23%
56%
|
41 | 28 | 13 | 0 |