Sertanense vs Carregado analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.3%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
6%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.1%
26%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
37.7%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.3%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.4%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sertanense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
MON
0 - 0
SER
34%
25%
41%
|
44 | 36 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
SER
1 - 0
ATL
65%
20%
15%
|
44 | 35 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
LOU
2 - 1
SER
44%
25%
31%
|
44 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
FAT
3 - 2
SER
61%
22%
17%
|
45 | 52 | 7 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
SER
4 - 2
PIN
38%
26%
37%
|
43 | 49 | 6 | +2 |
Matches
Carregado
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
CAR
3 - 0
MOU
75%
16%
10%
|
50 | 36 | 14 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
CAR
4 - 0
MON
74%
16%
10%
|
49 | 37 | 12 | +1 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
ATL
1 - 3
CAR
28%
26%
46%
|
49 | 36 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
LOU
2 - 2
CAR
36%
26%
37%
|
49 | 43 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
CAR
3 - 1
FAT
43%
26%
31%
|
48 | 53 | 5 | +1 |