Serra FC vs Ituano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.3%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
2.1%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.9%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
6.3%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.8%
26.8%
Draw
0-0
9%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.8%
46.8%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
12.8%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
9%
1-3
4.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14.1%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
6%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Serra FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2019 |
BRA
1 - 0
SER
50%
26%
24%
|
48 | 50 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2019 |
RIO
1 - 1
SER
37%
24%
39%
|
48 | 46 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2019 |
SER
0 - 1
RIO
50%
23%
27%
|
49 | 46 | 3 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 2019 |
CAS
1 - 5
SER
15%
20%
65%
|
48 | 33 | 15 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 2019 |
SER
1 - 1
EST
68%
19%
14%
|
49 | 37 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Ituano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2019 |
ITU
1 - 0
URT
67%
21%
12%
|
58 | 46 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2019 |
ITU
0 - 1
SAO
18%
24%
59%
|
60 | 80 | 20 | -2 |
| 24 Mar. 2019 |
SAO
2 - 1
ITU
73%
19%
8%
|
60 | 80 | 20 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2019 |
ITU
0 - 1
COR
18%
26%
56%
|
60 | 84 | 24 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2019 |
BRA
0 - 3
ITU
40%
26%
35%
|
59 | 59 | 0 | +1 |