Serbia and Montenegro vs Wales analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
30.6%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.2%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.6%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.6%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.6%
44.8%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.9%
0-2
7.2%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.5%
0-3
3.8%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Serbia and Montenegro
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 2003 |
AZE
2 - 1
SCG
22%
26%
52%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2003 |
FIN
3 - 0
SCG
76%
15%
10%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2003 |
ENG
2 - 1
SCG
92%
7%
1%
|
78 | 98 | 20 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2003 |
GER
1 - 0
SCG
95%
4%
1%
|
78 | 96 | 18 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2003 |
SCG
1 - 2
BGR
29%
26%
45%
|
79 | 89 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2003 |
USA
2 - 0
WAL
59%
23%
18%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2003 |
WAL
4 - 0
AZE
87%
10%
3%
|
87 | 63 | 24 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2003 |
WAL
2 - 2
BIH
75%
17%
8%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2002 |
AZE
0 - 2
WAL
6%
17%
77%
|
87 | 63 | 24 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2002 |
WAL
2 - 1
ITA
20%
28%
52%
|
87 | 98 | 11 | 0 |