Yugoslavia vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.8%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.9%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.1%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.2%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.7%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.9%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
39.5%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
4%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
4.7%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11.8%
0-3
2.8%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5.6%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.1%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Yugoslavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 1939 |
YUG
2 - 1
ENG
29%
20%
51%
|
63 | 85 | 22 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1939 |
ROU
1 - 0
YUG
68%
16%
16%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Feb. 1939 |
GER
3 - 2
YUG
80%
12%
8%
|
64 | 82 | 18 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
POL
4 - 4
YUG
70%
16%
15%
|
63 | 71 | 8 | +1 |
| 06 Sep. 1938 |
YUG
1 - 1
ROU
52%
20%
28%
|
63 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 1939 |
ITA
2 - 2
ENG
60%
18%
22%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1939 |
ITA
3 - 2
DEN
77%
14%
10%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Mar. 1939 |
ITA
3 - 2
GER
68%
16%
15%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 1938 |
ITA
1 - 0
FRA
77%
13%
10%
|
87 | 66 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 1938 |
ITA
2 - 0
SUI
82%
11%
7%
|
87 | 65 | 22 | 0 |