Uruguay vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.2%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.1%
19.6%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 1928 |
URU
4 - 1
GER
61%
19%
20%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 May. 1928 |
NED
0 - 2
URU
51%
22%
28%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 1927 |
CHI
2 - 3
URU
26%
24%
50%
|
82 | 59 | 23 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 1927 |
ARG
3 - 2
URU
44%
24%
32%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1927 |
URU
9 - 0
BOL
73%
16%
12%
|
82 | 64 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jun. 1928 |
ITA
7 - 1
ESP
48%
23%
29%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 1928 |
ITA
1 - 1
ESP
48%
23%
29%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 May. 1928 |
FRA
3 - 4
ITA
36%
24%
41%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 1928 |
ESP
1 - 1
ITA
64%
19%
18%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1928 |
POR
4 - 1
ITA
51%
22%
27%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |