Uruguay vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.7%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
7.5%
3-0
11.8%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
15%
2-0
16.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.2%
1-0
16.1%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
1.3%
4-3
0.1%
+1
25.4%
17.3%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
1.9%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
17.3%
7%
Win probability
0.47
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.8%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 1989 |
ITA
1 - 1
URU
68%
21%
12%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 1988 |
URU
3 - 0
PER
67%
21%
12%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 1988 |
URU
3 - 1
CHI
56%
25%
19%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 1988 |
CHI
1 - 1
URU
51%
27%
23%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1988 |
URU
2 - 0
PAR
54%
26%
20%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 1989 |
ECU
2 - 2
ARG
23%
26%
51%
|
70 | 89 | 19 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1989 |
BRA
1 - 0
ECU
88%
10%
3%
|
70 | 96 | 26 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1989 |
ECU
1 - 0
CHI
29%
25%
46%
|
69 | 85 | 16 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 1988 |
ECU
4 - 3
CHI
28%
26%
46%
|
68 | 85 | 17 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 1988 |
ECU
1 - 2
URU
32%
30%
38%
|
68 | 87 | 19 | 0 |