Uruguay vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78%
Win probability
2.6
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2%
5-0
3.6%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.9%
4-0
7%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.7%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.4%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.2%
7.8%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
5.8%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 1976 |
URU
0 - 0
PER
58%
22%
21%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1976 |
ECU
2 - 2
URU
32%
26%
43%
|
80 | 57 | 23 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 1976 |
COL
1 - 2
URU
33%
24%
43%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1976 |
PER
0 - 0
URU
48%
24%
28%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1976 |
CHI
0 - 0
URU
53%
23%
24%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 1976 |
ECU
2 - 2
URU
32%
26%
43%
|
57 | 80 | 23 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 1975 |
PAR
3 - 1
ECU
76%
15%
10%
|
57 | 78 | 21 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 1975 |
COL
2 - 0
ECU
69%
17%
14%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Jul. 1975 |
ECU
1 - 3
COL
61%
20%
19%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | -1 |
| 24 Jul. 1975 |
ECU
2 - 2
PAR
45%
25%
31%
|
59 | 79 | 20 | 0 |