Uruguay vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.7%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.2%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.2%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
7%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.4%
13.8%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 1938 |
URU
2 - 3
ARG
45%
23%
32%
|
80 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 1938 |
ARG
1 - 0
URU
60%
20%
20%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Nov. 1937 |
ARG
5 - 1
URU
58%
21%
21%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1937 |
URU
0 - 3
ARG
48%
23%
29%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | -1 |
| 23 Jan. 1937 |
ARG
2 - 3
URU
56%
22%
23%
|
81 | 86 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 1939 |
PER
5 - 2
ECU
63%
18%
19%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1938 |
BOL
2 - 1
ECU
51%
21%
28%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 1938 |
ECU
2 - 5
VEN
65%
18%
17%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | -1 |
| 11 Aug. 1938 |
ECU
1 - 9
PER
58%
20%
22%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | -2 |
| 10 Aug. 1938 |
COL
1 - 2
ECU
60%
19%
21%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | +1 |