Uruguay vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.6%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
3%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
14.3%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.3%
31%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
16.1%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
9%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
3.9%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1946 |
URU
4 - 3
BRA
47%
22%
32%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1945 |
ARG
6 - 2
URU
68%
17%
15%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | -1 |
| 18 Jul. 1945 |
URU
2 - 2
ARG
36%
24%
41%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1945 |
ARG
1 - 0
URU
68%
17%
15%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1945 |
CHI
1 - 0
URU
36%
22%
43%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jan. 1946 |
URU
4 - 3
BRA
47%
22%
32%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1945 |
BRA
3 - 1
ARG
46%
22%
33%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 1945 |
BRA
6 - 2
ARG
43%
22%
35%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | +1 |
| 16 Dec. 1945 |
BRA
3 - 4
ARG
43%
22%
34%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1945 |
CHI
0 - 1
BRA
38%
22%
41%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |