Uruguay vs Brazil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.4%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.3%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
20%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
20.6%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 1916 |
URU
0 - 0
ARG
53%
21%
25%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 1916 |
URU
4 - 1
CHI
72%
16%
12%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | +1 |
| 12 Jul. 1916 |
URU
2 - 1
BRA
54%
21%
25%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 1916 |
URU
4 - 0
CHI
63%
19%
18%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | +2 |
| 01 Nov. 1915 |
SCO
1 - 2
URU
10%
18%
72%
|
71 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
Matches
Brazil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 1916 |
URU
2 - 1
BRA
54%
21%
25%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 1916 |
ARG
1 - 1
BRA
55%
22%
23%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 1916 |
CHI
1 - 1
BRA
42%
24%
34%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1914 |
ARG
0 - 1
BRA
59%
21%
20%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Sep. 1914 |
ARG
3 - 0
BRA
56%
22%
23%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | -1 |