Uruguay vs Argentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.5%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.6%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.6%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
26.7%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.5%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 1916 |
URU
0 - 1
BRA
59%
20%
21%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 1916 |
URU
0 - 0
ARG
53%
21%
25%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 1916 |
URU
4 - 1
CHI
72%
16%
12%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | +1 |
| 12 Jul. 1916 |
URU
2 - 1
BRA
54%
21%
25%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 1916 |
URU
4 - 0
CHI
63%
19%
18%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | +2 |
Matches
Argentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul. 1916 |
URU
0 - 0
ARG
53%
21%
25%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 1916 |
ARG
1 - 0
CHI
68%
18%
14%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 1916 |
ARG
1 - 1
BRA
55%
22%
23%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 1916 |
ARG
6 - 1
CHI
65%
19%
16%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 1915 |
URU
2 - 0
ARG
50%
22%
28%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | -1 |