Uruguay vs Argentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.9%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.9%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
21.2%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
9%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.2%
25.9%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 1912 |
URU
2 - 0
ARG
50%
22%
28%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 1912 |
URU
0 - 3
SWI
81%
11%
7%
|
72 | 62 | 10 | -2 |
| 25 Feb. 1912 |
ARG
2 - 0
URU
64%
18%
18%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1911 |
URU
3 - 0
ARG
51%
22%
28%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | +1 |
| 22 Oct. 1911 |
ARG
2 - 0
URU
65%
18%
17%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
Matches
Argentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 1912 |
URU
2 - 0
ARG
50%
22%
28%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1912 |
ARG
2 - 0
URU
64%
18%
18%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1911 |
URU
3 - 0
ARG
51%
22%
28%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 1911 |
ARG
2 - 0
URU
65%
18%
17%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1911 |
URU
1 - 1
ARG
53%
21%
26%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |