Uruguay vs Argentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.4%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.3%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.3%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.9%
25.7%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1911 |
URU
2 - 3
ARG
55%
21%
25%
|
72 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1911 |
ARG
0 - 2
URU
68%
17%
16%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Jul. 1911 |
RIO
1 - 13
URU
6%
16%
78%
|
71 | 33 | 38 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 1911 |
GRE
0 - 3
URU
73%
15%
12%
|
70 | 78 | 8 | +1 |
| 14 Jul. 1911 |
GAU
0 - 6
URU
4%
14%
83%
|
70 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
Matches
Argentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1911 |
URU
2 - 3
ARG
55%
21%
25%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1911 |
ARG
0 - 2
URU
68%
17%
16%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1911 |
URU
1 - 2
ARG
49%
22%
29%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 1910 |
ARG
2 - 6
URU
76%
14%
10%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | -1 |
| 13 Nov. 1910 |
ARG
1 - 1
URU
77%
14%
9%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |