Tunisia vs Poland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20.9%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.3%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.6%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
55.7%
Win probability
1.75
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
10%
1-3
5.7%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.1%
0-3
5.9%
1-4
2.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.8%
0-4
2.6%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.6%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tunisia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 1978 |
SRB
2 - 1
TUN
48%
24%
28%
|
73 | 66 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 1978 |
BRD
0 - 0
TUN
88%
8%
4%
|
72 | 93 | 21 | +1 |
| 06 Jun. 1978 |
POL
1 - 0
TUN
84%
10%
6%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 1978 |
TUN
3 - 1
MEX
46%
25%
29%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | +1 |
| 19 May. 1978 |
FRA
2 - 0
TUN
78%
15%
8%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | -1 |
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 1978 |
POL
2 - 0
SUI
82%
13%
5%
|
87 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 1978 |
ROU
1 - 0
POL
46%
25%
29%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1978 |
ISL
0 - 2
POL
18%
23%
59%
|
87 | 52 | 35 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1978 |
FIN
0 - 1
POL
13%
20%
68%
|
87 | 55 | 32 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 1978 |
BRA
3 - 1
POL
71%
16%
13%
|
87 | 93 | 6 | 0 |