CHAN Segunda Ronda Final
Global 4-3
Togo vs Nigeria analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
16.5%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.1%
+2
3.5%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
3.9%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
+1
12.1%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
10.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
25.6%
57.8%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
16.7%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
27.1%
0-2
12.8%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
17.9%
0-3
6.6%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
8.5%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0%
-4
3.1%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Togo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2019 |
TOG
2 - 0
COM
69%
19%
12%
|
61 | 39 | 22 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2019 |
COM
1 - 1
TOG
9%
16%
75%
|
61 | 38 | 23 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2019 |
TOG
1 - 0
BEN
28%
25%
47%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | +1 |
| 28 Jul. 2019 |
BEN
0 - 0
TOG
55%
23%
21%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2019 |
BEN
2 - 1
TOG
46%
25%
29%
|
60 | 62 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Nigeria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2019 |
UKR
2 - 2
NGA
54%
26%
20%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2019 |
TUN
0 - 1
NGA
37%
27%
36%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2019 |
ALG
2 - 1
NGA
38%
26%
36%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2019 |
NGA
2 - 1
RSA
54%
24%
23%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2019 |
NGA
3 - 2
CMR
52%
25%
24%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | +1 |