Sweden vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.7%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.4%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.4%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
21.6%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sweden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May. 1965 |
SWE
1 - 2
ENG
49%
21%
30%
|
87 | 89 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 May. 1965 |
SWE
3 - 0
CYP
78%
13%
9%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 1964 |
BRD
1 - 1
SWE
49%
22%
29%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 1964 |
SWE
3 - 3
POL
83%
11%
7%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1964 |
NOR
1 - 1
SWE
30%
23%
47%
|
87 | 65 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 May. 1965 |
ITA
4 - 1
WAL
82%
12%
6%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1965 |
POL
0 - 0
ITA
31%
24%
44%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 1965 |
GER
1 - 1
ITA
53%
22%
25%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1964 |
ITA
3 - 1
DEN
79%
13%
8%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 1964 |
ITA
6 - 1
FIN
84%
11%
5%
|
88 | 49 | 39 | 0 |