South Africa vs Zambia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.8%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.8%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
21.2%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov. 2008 |
RSA
3 - 2
CMR
30%
29%
41%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2008 |
RSA
2 - 1
GHA
37%
29%
34%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | +1 |
| 11 Oct. 2008 |
EQG
0 - 1
RSA
16%
21%
63%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2008 |
RSA
3 - 0
MWI
66%
22%
13%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2008 |
RSA
0 - 1
GUI
52%
26%
22%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Zambia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2009 |
ZAM
0 - 2
SDN
61%
24%
16%
|
76 | 67 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2009 |
BDI
1 - 1
ZAM
11%
20%
69%
|
76 | 52 | 24 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 2009 |
ZAM
0 - 0
KEN
58%
24%
18%
|
76 | 67 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 2008 |
ZAM
3 - 0
DJI
76%
16%
8%
|
76 | 36 | 40 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2008 |
MAR
3 - 0
ZAM
63%
23%
15%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | -1 |