South Africa vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.3%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.2%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.8%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
2.6%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
17.4%
73.3%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
0-1
12.9%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
14.2%
1-3
6.6%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.1%
0-3
10.4%
1-4
3.6%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
14.6%
0-4
5.7%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.5%
0-5
2.5%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.2%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2010 |
RSA
1 - 0
DEN
21%
26%
53%
|
83 | 93 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2010 |
RSA
5 - 0
GTM
55%
25%
20%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 May. 2010 |
RSA
2 - 1
COL
25%
30%
45%
|
82 | 92 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2010 |
RSA
1 - 1
BGR
28%
28%
45%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | +1 |
| 16 May. 2010 |
RSA
4 - 0
THA
48%
25%
27%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jun. 2010 |
ITA
1 - 2
MEX
55%
25%
20%
|
92 | 96 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2010 |
MEX
5 - 1
GAM
81%
14%
5%
|
92 | 66 | 26 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2010 |
NED
2 - 1
MEX
62%
22%
16%
|
92 | 97 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2010 |
ENG
3 - 1
MEX
66%
20%
14%
|
93 | 97 | 4 | -1 |
| 16 May. 2010 |
MEX
1 - 0
CHI
59%
23%
18%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |