South Africa vs Australia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.5%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.5%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.1%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.4%
1-0
11%
2-1
6.2%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
18.5%
29.2%
Draw
0-0
11.7%
1-1
13.3%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
29.2%
42.3%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
14.1%
1-2
8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
23.8%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
12.3%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.1%
-3
4.5%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2004 |
RSA
2 - 1
NGA
34%
30%
36%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2004 |
UGA
0 - 1
RSA
27%
26%
48%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2004 |
COD
1 - 0
RSA
32%
27%
41%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2004 |
TUN
0 - 2
RSA
52%
26%
23%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Jul. 2004 |
RSA
2 - 0
BFA
67%
21%
12%
|
82 | 65 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Australia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2004 |
AUS
2 - 2
NOR
32%
28%
40%
|
89 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2004 |
AUS
6 - 0
SOL
88%
10%
2%
|
89 | 49 | 40 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2004 |
SOL
1 - 5
AUS
3%
13%
84%
|
89 | 49 | 40 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2004 |
AUS
2 - 2
SOL
87%
11%
3%
|
89 | 48 | 41 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2004 |
VAN
0 - 3
AUS
2%
13%
85%
|
89 | 43 | 46 | 0 |