South Africa vs Ethiopia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.3%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.9%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
14.6%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.5%
1-0
15%
2-1
9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.9%
20%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
20%
10.7%
Win probability
0.61
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
RSA
0 - 0
SEN
48%
27%
24%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2012 |
EQG
0 - 0
RSA
11%
19%
70%
|
85 | 56 | 29 | -1 |
| 06 Jan. 2012 |
GUI
0 - 0
RSA
33%
27%
40%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2011 |
ZIM
2 - 1
RSA
21%
26%
53%
|
85 | 69 | 16 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2011 |
RSA
1 - 1
CIV
34%
28%
39%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Feb. 2012 |
ETH
0 - 0
BEN
49%
24%
27%
|
63 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2011 |
ETH
0 - 2
KEN
56%
24%
20%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | -1 |
| 16 Nov. 2011 |
ETH
5 - 0
SOM
77%
16%
8%
|
64 | 37 | 27 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2011 |
SOM
0 - 0
ETH
18%
21%
61%
|
64 | 36 | 28 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
4 - 2
MAD
69%
19%
13%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | +1 |