Sri Lanka vs Papua New Guinea analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.4%
Win probability
1.55
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
7.2%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
5.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
13.8%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.7%
54.9%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
5.2%
3-4
1.6%
4-5
0.3%
5-6
0%
-1
20.6%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
3%
3-5
0.7%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
16.2%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
1.4%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
10%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
4-8
0%
-4
5%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0.1%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sri Lanka
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct. 2023 |
LKA
1 - 1
YEM
12%
20%
68%
|
24 | 45 | 21 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2023 |
YEM
3 - 0
LKA
74%
16%
9%
|
25 | 45 | 20 | -1 |
| 14 Jun. 2022 |
MDV
1 - 0
LKA
74%
16%
11%
|
25 | 37 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2022 |
LKA
0 - 2
THA
4%
11%
86%
|
25 | 71 | 46 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2022 |
UZB
3 - 0
LKA
89%
9%
2%
|
26 | 77 | 51 | -1 |
Matches
Papua New Guinea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct. 2023 |
PNG
0 - 1
VAN
27%
22%
51%
|
37 | 44 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2023 |
PNG
1 - 3
NCL
19%
20%
62%
|
38 | 51 | 13 | -1 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
PNG
1 - 3
SOL
26%
22%
52%
|
40 | 48 | 8 | -2 |
| 20 Jun. 2023 |
MAS
10 - 0
PNG
66%
19%
16%
|
41 | 56 | 15 | -1 |
| 16 Jun. 2023 |
SGP
2 - 2
PNG
60%
20%
21%
|
41 | 49 | 8 | 0 |