WC Qual. Africa 1ra Ronda Final
Global 0-5
Somalia vs Ethiopia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.7%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.4%
1-0
4.9%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.6%
21%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21%
61.4%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
10%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.9%
0-2
10.1%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.7%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.9%
0-4
3.4%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.9%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Somalia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2011 |
DJI
1 - 0
SOM
50%
21%
29%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2010 |
ZAM
6 - 0
SOM
80%
14%
6%
|
37 | 77 | 40 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2010 |
TAN
3 - 0
SOM
73%
18%
9%
|
37 | 61 | 24 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2010 |
BDI
2 - 0
SOM
60%
22%
17%
|
38 | 50 | 12 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 2009 |
ERI
1 - 2
SOM
35%
25%
41%
|
38 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
4 - 2
MAD
69%
19%
13%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2011 |
ETH
0 - 0
MWI
42%
26%
33%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
GUI
1 - 0
ETH
65%
21%
14%
|
63 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
ETH
2 - 2
NGA
22%
29%
49%
|
63 | 88 | 25 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2011 |
ETH
1 - 2
SDN
44%
27%
29%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | -1 |