Portugal vs Uruguay analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.9%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.5%
1-0
7%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.8%
23%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
32.1%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jun. 1966 |
DEN
1 - 3
POR
60%
20%
20%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Jun. 1966 |
SCO
0 - 1
POR
69%
18%
13%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | +1 |
| 12 Jun. 1966 |
POR
4 - 0
NOR
68%
17%
15%
|
75 | 67 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1965 |
ROU
2 - 0
POR
61%
21%
19%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 1965 |
POR
0 - 0
CSK
37%
24%
39%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jun. 1966 |
ESP
1 - 1
URU
70%
17%
14%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 1966 |
ROU
1 - 0
URU
45%
23%
32%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 1966 |
ISR
1 - 2
URU
34%
24%
42%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | +1 |
| 18 May. 1966 |
URU
3 - 1
PAR
61%
20%
19%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1966 |
PAR
2 - 2
URU
42%
23%
35%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |