Portugal vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.1%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.7%
2-0
8%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.4%
22.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.6%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 1925 |
POR
0 - 2
ESP
48%
23%
29%
|
74 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 May. 1924 |
POR
2 - 1
ARG
50%
23%
28%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 May. 1924 |
POR
1 - 3
ARG
51%
23%
27%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1923 |
ESP
3 - 0
POR
63%
19%
18%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | -1 |
| 17 Dec. 1922 |
POR
1 - 2
ESP
50%
23%
28%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun. 1925 |
ESP
1 - 0
ITA
64%
19%
17%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1925 |
ITA
7 - 0
FRA
65%
18%
17%
|
74 | 63 | 11 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 1925 |
ITA
1 - 2
HUN
45%
23%
32%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | -1 |
| 23 Nov. 1924 |
GER
0 - 1
ITA
52%
22%
26%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Nov. 1924 |
ITA
2 - 2
SWE
47%
23%
30%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |