Portugal vs USA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
90.4%
Win probability
3.62
Expected goals
10-0
0.2%
+10
0.2%
9-0
0.4%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.5%
8-0
1.1%
9-1
0.3%
10-2
<0%
+8
1.4%
7-0
2.4%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
3.1%
6-0
4.7%
7-1
1.4%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
6.3%
5-0
7.8%
6-1
2.7%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
10.9%
4-0
10.7%
5-1
4.5%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
16.1%
3-0
11.8%
4-1
6.2%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.5%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.5%
6.7%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
3.1%
2-2
1.7%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
0
6.7%
2.7%
Win probability
0.58
Expected goals
0-1
0.9%
1-2
0.9%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
2.2%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.5%
0-3
0%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1978 |
FRA
2 - 0
POR
54%
25%
21%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 1977 |
POR
4 - 0
CYP
86%
9%
4%
|
85 | 58 | 27 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 1977 |
POL
1 - 1
POR
66%
21%
14%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | +1 |
| 09 Oct. 1977 |
DEN
2 - 4
POR
45%
27%
28%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1977 |
POR
1 - 0
SUI
74%
17%
10%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
USA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 1978 |
SUI
2 - 0
USA
70%
17%
14%
|
62 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1978 |
ISL
0 - 0
USA
42%
22%
36%
|
62 | 53 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1977 |
USA
2 - 1
CHN
38%
23%
39%
|
61 | 77 | 16 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 1977 |
USA
1 - 0
CHN
36%
23%
41%
|
60 | 78 | 18 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 1977 |
USA
1 - 1
CHN
35%
23%
42%
|
59 | 78 | 19 | +1 |