Portugal vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.8%
Win probability
2.78
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.5%
5-0
3.9%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.6%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
3.1%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.7%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
5.5%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
17%
2-0
11%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.2%
13.3%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
13.3%
7.9%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
2.4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.7%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May. 1972 |
CYP
0 - 1
POR
26%
24%
51%
|
81 | 64 | 17 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1972 |
POR
4 - 0
CYP
76%
13%
11%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1971 |
POR
1 - 1
BEL
52%
23%
25%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 1971 |
SCO
2 - 1
POR
60%
23%
17%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 12 May. 1971 |
POR
5 - 0
DEN
62%
20%
18%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May. 1970 |
ECU
0 - 2
ENG
17%
22%
61%
|
55 | 91 | 36 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 1969 |
ECU
1 - 1
CHI
28%
22%
51%
|
55 | 80 | 25 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 1969 |
CHI
4 - 1
ECU
78%
14%
9%
|
55 | 80 | 25 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 1969 |
URU
1 - 0
ECU
87%
9%
5%
|
55 | 83 | 28 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 1969 |
ECU
0 - 2
URU
10%
17%
73%
|
56 | 82 | 26 | -1 |