Portugal vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
36.1%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.9%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
5%
2-0
4%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
10.7%
1-0
4.7%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.7%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
7.2%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.8%
42.1%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
4.5%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
19.2%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
2.1%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
12.6%
0-3
3%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
6.4%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portugal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 1954 |
POR
1 - 3
ARG
31%
23%
47%
|
70 | 90 | 20 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1954 |
BEL
0 - 0
POR
64%
16%
19%
|
69 | 73 | 4 | +1 |
| 29 Nov. 1953 |
POR
0 - 0
AUT
40%
22%
38%
|
69 | 83 | 14 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 1953 |
POR
3 - 1
RSA
41%
20%
39%
|
68 | 75 | 7 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 1953 |
AUT
9 - 1
POR
81%
12%
8%
|
69 | 83 | 14 | -1 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 1954 |
ENG
3 - 1
GER
69%
16%
15%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 1954 |
BEL
2 - 0
GER
42%
21%
37%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | -1 |
| 25 Apr. 1954 |
SUI
3 - 5
GER
37%
22%
41%
|
86 | 69 | 17 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 1953 |
GER
0 - 0
AUT
69%
16%
16%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Dec. 1952 |
ESP
2 - 2
GER
54%
20%
26%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |